New York, California, Texas, Florida: 2026 Compared

Four states account for most of the questions international buyers ask us. In 2026 they are behaving very differently: New York is up 5.2% on the year while Florida is down 2.8% and Texas down 1.9%, and California sits almost exactly flat.

The yields tell a second story that does not line up with the first. Let's put all four on the same measures.

1. The Four States, Side by Side

New York leads on annual movement and five-year growth. Florida leads on yield at 6.46% and Texas follows at 6.27%. California trails on both, which is what a market priced for scarcity rather than income looks like.

Note that two of the four levy no personal state income tax, and both compensate through other channels — Texas primarily through property tax, Florida through property tax and insurance.

Each state page carries the full ten-year series — see New York, California, Florida and Texas.

2. What the Tax Columns Actually Cost

The no-income-tax advantage is real and it is partial. Texas effective property tax rates commonly run 1.5% to 2.2% of value — on a $302,999 home that is $4,500 to $6,700 a year, consuming a quarter or more of the gross rent before anything else is paid.

Florida adds insurance. Hurricane exposure and reinsurance costs have repriced the market sharply, and a coastal property can carry a premium that changes the annual carrying cost entirely. The 6.46% gross frequently lands between 3% and 4.5% net once a real quote is obtained.

California's Proposition 13 limits annual increases for existing owners, but a purchase generally resets the assessment to the price paid. A seller's low bill does not transfer — the mechanics are in our property tax guide.

3. What Each One Is Actually For

New York is bought for liquidity and legal certainty: recorded title, predictable courts, and a resale pool that extends worldwide. Its 5.99% state yield is lifted by markets far outside the city; Manhattan itself yields far less.

California is bought for coastal scarcity. The supply constraint does not relax, and buyers should expect to fund a thin or negative carry from elsewhere. Florida pairs yield with an international buyer base and no state income tax, at the price of insurance and condominium reserve exposure. Texas is the purest cash-flow play, provided the parcel's tax rate is verified rather than assumed.

The framework for choosing between them — income, growth or liquidity — is set out in our market selection guide.

4. The Counterargument: New York's Year

A 5.2% annual gain in New York cuts against the consensus that the state has been in structural decline since 2021. Skeptics will say one year is noise, that the figure is lifted by suburbs and upstate markets rather than the city, and that carrying costs there remain among the highest in the country. All three points are fair.

The rebuttal is that the five-year figure — 30.0%, the strongest of the four — was also not what the consensus expected. New York has been written off repeatedly and has a long record of not cooperating with the obituary. For a buyer whose priority is a durable asset in a deep, liquid, legally predictable market, the last twelve months are a reason to look again rather than a reason to conclude anything.

For buyers weighing New York against Florida specifically, our comparison article sets the two out side by side.

Financing differs sharply between them

For a buyer without a US credit file, DSCR underwriting tests whether the rent covers the debt service. Texas and Florida clear that comfortably at 6.27% and 6.46% gross; California at 4.22% frequently does not, and New York depends entirely on which part of the state.

That is a practical constraint rather than a preference. A buyer whose California purchase fails the coverage ratio can often finance a Texas or Florida property on an identical balance sheet, as our DSCR guide sets out.

Where the state average hides the most

New York's 5.99% state yield is the clearest example. It blends Manhattan, where yields sit far below that figure, with upstate markets where they sit well above. A buyer using the state number to underwrite a city apartment will be wrong by several points.

The same applies in every state here. Florida spans Miami at 6.19% and Jacksonville at 6.67%; Texas spans Austin at 3.82% and Houston at 7.1%. Always underwrite the city, and preferably the block.

Final Thoughts: Four States, One Question

The state averages above are a starting point and nothing more. Every one of these four contains a two- to three-point yield spread between its cities, and the parcel's actual tax bill and insurance quote reorder shortlists more reliably than any state comparison. Name what the capital is for, then choose the city rather than the state.

We underwrite specific properties in all four including the actual tax and insurance figures, with brokerage services provided through licensed professionals. Talk to our team about what you want the purchase to do.

What we watch across the four: whether New York's gain persists into a second year, how Florida's insurance market settles, whether Texas property tax relief measures alter the effective rate, and how California's supply constraints interact with any change in rates. Those four questions decide more than any national forecast.

One structural point applies to all four and is worth stating plainly. A non-resident owner faces the same federal treatment in every one of them: income tax on net rental profit after expenses, FIRPTA withholding of generally 15% of the gross price on sale, and US estate tax exposure above a $60,000 exemption on US-situs assets.

State choice changes the income line and nothing else. Buyers who select a state for its tax treatment and then overlook the federal position have optimised the smaller of the two numbers, which is why ownership structure belongs in the decision alongside the market.

For a first US purchase, the practical recommendation we give most often is to pick the state whose failure mode you can live with. California's is a negative carry you fund for years. Texas's is a property tax bill that grows regardless of rent. Florida's is an insurance renewal you cannot control. New York's is the highest running cost in the country attached to the deepest resale market. Every one of those is survivable if it was chosen deliberately, and painful if it was discovered.

Reinvent NY provides business consulting, operational support, and coordination services. Legal advice and immigration filings are handled by independent licensed attorneys. Real estate services are provided through licensed professionals and applicable brokerage relationships. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice.

More market reports: Austin Real Estate Market 2026, California Real Estate Market 2026, Chicago Real Estate 2026. The full set is indexed under market data for all 51 states.