Ten years, five years,
and the last twelve months
Pick a different window and you get a different answer about the same market. Here are all three, side by side.
Before you read on
- Zillow ZHVI, June 2026. Metro-level medians.
- Growth figures over five and ten years are annualised.
- Past movement does not predict future prices.
Point 1Most metros are down over the last year
12 of the twenty are negative over twelve months. The claim that US real estate only goes up is not supported by the recent record.
| Metro | 1 year | 5 year p.a. | 10 year p.a. | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | -5.71% | -1.80% | +3.87% | $426,944 |
| Dallas, TX | -3.01% | +2.95% | +5.62% | $366,701 |
| Denver, CO | -2.67% | +1.34% | +4.76% | $572,682 |
| Miami, FL | -2.23% | +6.02% | +6.75% | $476,598 |
| Houston, TX | -2.07% | +2.99% | +4.28% | $308,933 |
| Atlanta, GA | -1.98% | +4.28% | +6.82% | $383,050 |
Austin has compounded at 3.87% a year over ten years and is negative over five. The pandemic run-up and the correction after it are both inside that ten-year number.
Point 2Over five years the order changes
| Metro | 5 year p.a. | 1 year | Gross yield | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami, FL | +6.02% | -2.23% | 6.78% | $476,598 |
| Cleveland, OH | +5.80% | +4.15% | 6.92% | $255,598 |
| Philadelphia, PA | +5.16% | +2.49% | 5.86% | $394,762 |
| New York, NY | +5.05% | +4.08% | 5.83% | $735,003 |
| Chicago, IL | +5.05% | +4.51% | 7.59% | $359,888 |
| Charlotte, NC | +4.96% | -0.42% | 5.37% | $390,942 |
New York compounds at 5.05% over five years and is still positive over the last twelve months. Very few large markets manage both in this cycle.
Point 3Why they diverge
Where there is land and permissive zoning, demand turns into units rather than price. That caps the run-up and it also removes the floor when demand fades.
The pandemic pushed households from the coasts to the sunbelt. Austin and Phoenix rose hardest on that flow and have given back the most as it reversed.
Rate rises bite hardest where buyers borrow. Markets with a large cash share held up through the tightening.
One industry means one correlated risk. Seattle and San Francisco both moved with the tech cycle; broader metros moved less.
DataAll twenty, three windows
| Metro | 1 year | 5 year p.a. | 10 year p.a. | Median price | Gross yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte, NC | -0.42% | +4.96% | +7.32% | $390,942 | 5.37% |
| Columbus, OH | +1.26% | +4.72% | +6.86% | $335,357 | 5.47% |
| Atlanta, GA | -1.98% | +4.28% | +6.82% | $383,050 | 5.81% |
| Nashville, TN | -0.91% | +4.64% | +6.79% | $457,809 | 4.75% |
| Miami, FL | -2.23% | +6.02% | +6.75% | $476,598 | 6.78% |
| Cleveland, OH | +4.15% | +5.80% | +6.61% | $255,598 | 6.92% |
| Phoenix, AZ | -1.68% | +2.68% | +6.57% | $447,054 | 4.65% |
| Seattle, WA | -1.83% | +2.44% | +6.38% | $745,263 | 3.65% |
| San Diego, CA | -0.57% | +4.55% | +6.13% | $940,998 | 3.81% |
| Philadelphia, PA | +2.49% | +5.16% | +5.86% | $394,762 | 5.86% |
| Los Angeles, CA | +0.63% | +4.24% | +5.82% | $968,028 | 3.63% |
| Boston, MA | +1.69% | +4.41% | +5.66% | $746,595 | 5.16% |
| Dallas, TX | -3.01% | +2.95% | +5.62% | $366,701 | 5.48% |
| New York, NY | +4.08% | +5.05% | +5.17% | $735,003 | 5.83% |
| Chicago, IL | +4.51% | +5.05% | +5.15% | $359,888 | 7.59% |
| Denver, CO | -2.67% | +1.34% | +4.76% | $572,682 | 4.04% |
| Houston, TX | -2.07% | +2.99% | +4.28% | $308,933 | 6.40% |
| Washington, DC | -0.33% | +2.58% | +4.04% | $584,684 | 5.02% |
| Austin, TX | -5.71% | -1.80% | +3.87% | $426,944 | 4.65% |
| San Francisco, CA | +0.13% | +0.75% | +3.68% | $1,142,320 | 3.47% |
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Important notice
The figures on this page are general information as of August 2026 and do not represent an offer, a quote, or a guarantee of any transaction terms. Figures are Zillow's published home value index, aggregated by Reinvent NY. Reinvent NY does not provide legal, tax, or investment advice. Confirm anything material with an attorney and a CPA before you act on it. Nothing here is a solicitation to invest, and no return is promised. Real estate brokerage services are provided through R New York.